Years and years ago, the concept of social stock picking was interesting. The wisdom of crowds was the latest craze. The Long Tail was still considered valid. StockTwits is feeding this need for voyeuristic portfolio management and now we have yet another wisdom of crowds meets stock market predictions (YAWOCMSMP). The latest YAWOCMSMP is Piqqem. In their own words:
Piqqem applies the wisdom of crowds to stock market predictions. Feel free to browse the site as a visitor, but be forewarned: when you try to make a prediction, we’ll ask you to sign in.
Here is a major convenient difference between Piqqem and StockTwits: “when you try to make a prediction, we’ll ask you to sign in”
Oh, joy – yet another account I have to sign up for and remember all the details. StockTwits rides on the coat tails of Twitter – goodly or badly – it is easier to get into the mix with StockTwits if you already have a Twitter account.
Here is the problem all Wisdom of Crowds or social stock picking sites have: The stock market IS the ultimate Wisdom of Crowds. I would expect any micro slices of the stock market, as represented by a Wisdom of Crowds site to be a sample of the total population. That sample would most likely mirror the actual market – not be a BETTER predictor of the markets. That is my thought, but Piqqem does not agree.
Can Piqqem differentiate themselves? Here is an interesting concept for groups:
We just rolled out a new feature: behavioral and demographic groups. Based on demographic information users have submitted (or are going to submit, right?), we’ve placed those users into demographic groups based on age, gender, location, and profession. Based on how they interact with the site, we’ve placed users into behavioral groups. Are they an optimist or a pessimist? How often do they vote? How long have they been a member? Groups are available from the user profile pages for now, but it’s a safe bet that they’ll start showing up in other places once we’ve collected enough data.
Maybe. With enough sample in each group, you might see significant differences. I fear that they won’t prove to be predictive.
Ultimately, competition is good, so good luck to Piqqem.
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